Formula One Betting
David Sumpter, a professor of Applied Mathematics, has shown how soccer can be dissected and broken down into numbers, patterns and shapes in his book Soccermatics. Having already developed a betting model, he has now written a two-part article for Pinnacle, exploring the notion of a magical betting formula and how mathematics can be used to get an edge in betting.
F1 Betting tips and the latest formula 1 odds from Betfair. Join today and we'll give you a free bet on the next F1 race. Formula one, or otherwise F1, is the highest class of auto racing and is known as the pinnacle of speed and suspense in the racing world. Michael Schumacher is perhaps the player most associated with Formula 1 across the world, as the German retired race driver won a legendary 91 Grand Prix victories during his career -the most to this day. As one of the biggest betting companies, 1xBet gives everyone a chance to earn money. With 1xBet, bettors can also place bets on events in show business, cinema, TV, economics, politics and other aspects of life that we talk about. Having already developed a betting model, David Sumpter has now written a two-part article for Pinnacle, exploring the notion of a magical betting formula and how mathematics can be used to get an edge in betting.
There is an urban legend of mathematical modelling of soccer matches. It is the legend of the mathematical genius, the Einstein of gambling, who has worked out the formula for beating the bookmakers and winning money. If only, the legend goes, you can find the tips that this person can provide, the source of the magic equation, you can become rich beyond your wildest dreams.
After I published the book Soccermatics last year, a few people seemed to believe I might hold the magical equation. I would get messages on Twitter and emails to my work address asking me if I could help them with tips and advice. I was a professor of mathematics who had studied soccer, maybe I knew the secret?
A simple way to find value in the betting market
In one section of the book, I did manage to beat the bookies. But it wasn’t because I found a magical formula that predicts who will win soccer matches.
The basis of my model was far from complicated. It didn’t come from me working out the strength of the teams based on past performance, advanced metrics, expected goals or anything else.
The way I did it was much simpler. I looked at the odds and found a very small but significant bias in how they were set. Bookmakers and bettors hadn’t paid enough attention to predicting the draw in soccer.
Maybe it is because of the popularity of the Over/Under markets. Maybe it is because bettors don’t like betting on a draw. But, whatever the explanation, it turned out that draws in the Premier League were not properly priced.
- Read: How to beat the bookies in the Over/Under market.
Below is a plot of the real frequency of draws in four seasons of the Premier League (2011/12, 2012/13, 2013/14, 2014/15) and the prediction of draws implied by the bookmaker’s odds.
This figure is created by taking the odds provided by four leading bookmakers (including Pinnacle), converting odds to implied probabilities and then looking at the difference between the probability of a home win and an away win.
It turns out that when two well-matched teams meet (i.e. the probability of a home win is only slightly bigger than the probability of away win) then draws are under-priced (circles above red line). When matches are skewed so there is a strong a favourite (i.e. the probability of one team or the other winning is larger than the other) then draws are over-priced (circles below red line).
Want it made simpler? If two teams are about as good as each other then the draw could be a value bet. If one team is much stronger than the other, don’t bet on the draw (betting on the favourite is normally the smartest move in this case).
Testing out the theory of under-priced draws
That was what I found by plotting the odds. I then took that observation and made some money from it. Below are profits for this model for the 2015/16 season.
I tripled my money over the season. Well, actually I didn’t bet throughout the season. But I had doubled my money by Christmas.
Soccermatics came out in May 2016, just as the Premier League was coming to a close. I monitored how it went for my model the season after. Here is the result.
Not so good. There was a small profit to be made in the first few weeks, but then it flatlined for the rest of the season. Not losing money is a small achievement in itself, where the odds are in the bookmaker’s favour, but obviously making money is the objective for most bettors.
Lessons learn from using my model
There are four lessons to be learnt from my model.
Firstly, I didn’t make money by creating a magic formula. Although I did write down a single equation that I then used to decide my bets (it is footnote 17 for chapter 12 in the book if you don’t want to read the rest of it) this equation came from an analysis of the odds.
The basis of my model was far from complicated. It didn’t come from me working out the strength of the teams based on past performance, advanced metrics, expected goals or anything else. It came from a small error in how the odds were being set.
If you want to create your own model of sporting outcomes you need to use the odds as the starting point.
Secondly, I wasn’t just lucky. The original model was consistent with the previous four years of bookmaker’s odds. I downloaded my odds from Oddsportal and then double-checked my model against those on football-data.co.uk. I then made a prediction and applied it to the next year and it continued to work.
There is a lot of randomness in betting and it is possible to win for quite a long period of time with luck alone. But this was a long-term trend that was profitable.
Thirdly, nothing lasts forever. In moments of self-aggrandising I like to think that my book led to a market correction. Maybe the traders at Pinnacle and other bookmakers read my book and thought “we’ve been pricing draws wrong. See those odds for Liverpool at home against Manchester United at the weekend….move the draw odds up by 0.1.” That’s all it takes and my small margin disappears.
This is just one explanation, though. Another is that managers realised that in those big matches between equally good teams they should go for the three points (this is also something I look at in the book). There are other explanations too. The fact is, I will never know for sure, but the odds bias I found has gone.
My fourth and final conclusion is: I am a total idiot. I spent three months developing a betting model. I found a way to win. But instead of placing all my free capital on the model, I published a book with the secret in it, only to see the profits disappear.
Yes, I got paid for writing the book. Yes, I have enjoyed talking about soccer and engaging in the analytics community, but the money would have been nice too.
- How to bet on soccer: The ultimate soccer betting guide.
There is no secret equation for predicting the outcome of soccer matches. Not an equation that ignores the odds, in any case. If you want to create your own model of sporting outcomes you need to use the odds as the starting point.
Wisdom of the crowd tells us that the betting market can be hard to beat, but sometimes it makes a few small mistakes. It is these you have to look for.
In part two of this article I will see if I can find one of those cracks using a combination of an expected goals model and potential biases in recent odds.
If you want to learn more about David Sumpter's work you can follow @Soccermatics on Twitter.
Although there is no official record of the first bet on Formula 1, people started betting on this sport as early as the 1950s when F1 was still new.
Its popularity came in the ‘90s all through the 2000s. Today, F1 racing is among the top racing sports worldwide. Although Formula 1 is arguably more popular in Europe, the sport has become a people’s favourite worldwide, gaining more fans in almost all continents. Those who watch F1 races must agree that it is a rush of adrenaline that keeps everyone at the edge of their seats.
While watching F1 races will get your adrenaline pumping, betting on them is more fun and profitable if you know how to do things right. Due to its popularity, online betting sites started offering F1 betting markets, and before long, numerous Formula 1 sportsbook began popping up all over the internet. Top online casinos offer betting options for almost all Formula 1 races in the season. You can bet on the race matches, the top six placements, or the field vs. the best constructor, among other wagers. Some casinos also allow players to make live bets as the race progresses.
The most important decision you can make when betting on F1 races is where you are going to do so. Thankfully, numerous reputable online casinos offer players the best odds on F1 races. You need to know them before risking your hard-earned money. Here is a review of the top 5 such sites.
Bet365
Bet365 is one of the best sites for F1 online sports betting. It offers you a wide range of betting markets to choose from, including advanced lines. If you love live betting, Bet365 has you covered as their live betting section is one of a kind.
The user interface is unmatched, and you will love their live statistics as you place your bets. Don’t worry about low odds ad Bet365 has some of the highest F1 racing betting odds on the market. They also have wide coverage to ensure that you never miss a race to bet on throughout the season.
888Sports
888Sports is another top online casino for F1 betting. Whether you wish to bet on the World Championship winner or the expected top team, you will find the best odds at 888Sports. They make it simple for punters by offering them a wide range of markets. Some of the F1 bets you can expect from the site include F1 Driver’s Championship odds, classic and up-and-coming races. You can also bet on the actual vehicle in the race as each constructor is made up of two drivers.
One reason why punters prefer 888Sports for Formula 1 betting is that it is one of the highest paying online casinos. It is a high-roller-friendly bookie, that offers you huge payouts, lets you place huge bets, and also accepts large deposits.
William Hill
William Hill is another top casino for F1 betting. Its name is a combination of Britain’s top drivers and the world-famous F1 team. Although they don’t have a dedicated F1 section, you can place Formula 1 bets from their motor racing page, where you will find numerous betting options on the sport.
There is a great selection of markets for every F1 race, including the fastest qualifier, race winner, the first race retirement, among many more. You can also bet on the constructors’ and driver’s championships.
Coral
If you are looking for a reliable and trustworthy bookmaker for F1 bets, consider Coral. You can access its F1 section through its motorsports page, where you will get all the available markets for the F1 season and any other upcoming race.
For every race, you will find select markets with any wager you can think of. Some of the markets include betting on which nationality the race winner will be, whether a certain driver will finish the race, and whether a constructor’s cars will gather the points at the finish line.
Betvictor
Betvictor is a one-stop casino for F1 fans who also love to bet. It offers odds on all Formula One races for the whole season with the widest range of markets for races you can find anywhere. Apart from betting on a specific race winner, Betvictor also allows you to wager on who will get the fastest lap, the final winning margin, and if there will be a safety car, among other bets.
Formula One Betting Lines
Conclusion
Nn1 Betting Formula
These are the top 5 sites where you can bet on Formula 1 races online. Check them out to determine which one appeals to you the most.